Author: by Jieming Chou, Fan Yang, Zhongxiu Wang and Wenjie Dong
Summary:
The Chinaâ€US trade conflict will inevitably have a negative impact on Chinaâ€s trade imports and exports, industrial development, and economic growth, and will affect the achievement of climate change goals. In the short term, the impact of the trade conflict on Chinaâ€s import and export trade will cause the carbon emissions contained in traded commodities to change accordingly. To assess the impact of the trade conflict on Chinaâ€s climate policy, this paper combines a model from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the inputâ€output analysis method and calculates the carbon emissions in international trade before and after the conflict. The conclusions are as follows: (1) The trade war has led to a sharp decline in Chinaâ€US trade, but for China as a whole, imports and exports have not changed much; (2) Chinaâ€s export emissions have changed little, its import emissions have dropped slightly, and its net emissions have increased; and (3) Chinaâ€s exports are still concentrated in energy-intensive industries. Changes in trade will bring challenges to Chinaâ€s balancing of climate and trade exigencies. Chinaâ€US cooperation based on energy and technology will help China cope with climate change after the trade conflict. View Full-Text
